Here’s the probability Bitcoin hits $20,000 by year-end, according to the options market ⋆ ZyCrypto
Bitcoin traders are clearly having a tough decision on whether to go long or short, Bitcoin’s price has been inert for the past 2 days and it’s bouncing back and forth between $9,464 and $9,950.
It seems that Bitcoin’s recent halving left a lot of uncertainty in the market and traders are not sure if Bitcoin is bearish or bullish now. Daily trading volume has been dropping for the past week which indicates a major move is going to happen soon. On BitMEX, the number of longs are still dominating the shorts, similarly, Bitfinex longs are 80% vs 20% of shorts and even Binance has a bit more long positions than shorts.
This indicates that the majority of traders are ready to hold, however, it could also be fuel for a bear break leading to a huge long squeeze.
Options Market Say Bitcoin Only Has a 9% Chance to Hit a New ATH
According to recent statistics from ‘SKEW’, the options market, a derivatives market traded in contracts, is showing a tiny 9% probability for Bitcoin hitting $20k and above at the end of 2020. It also shows that most contracts are below 40% chance when it comes to Bitcoin even hitting $10,000 again.
At the same time, it seems that BTC options open interest keeps growing exponentially and has been growing over the past month. This is not necessarily bullish as it only indicates that there is a lot of liquidity, however, it is still a good metric for Bitcoin.
Some analysts, however, are a lot more bullish on Bitcoin, for instance, Tuur Demeester, the founder of Adamant Capital has recently stated that he believes Bitcoin will reach $50,000 soon and explained why. He basically blames the governments around the world printing money and that he doesn’t think BTC will touch $6,000 again.
‘I mean, I think a price target of $50,000 is not insane at all, especially given just how crazy the money printing is’
The amount of money printed in 2020 is now close to 11% of the entire USA GDP in 2019.
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